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10

2022

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08

China's Pig Price Analysis in the Coming Months

来源:

Why did China's domestic pig price not rise in Aug, and can it rise in Sept? How much will it rise at the end of the year? OIG+X Now gather the information for your reference.

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Why did China's domestic pig price not rise in Aug, and can it rise in Sept? How much will it rise at the end of the year? OIG+X Now gather the information for your reference.
 
-1. Why did the price of pigs not rise in Aug?
Although the price of live pigs has not fallen significantly in the last week, it has basically been on a downward trend. The strong rise at the end of Jul obviously failed to extend to Aug. The price of pigs did not rise in Aug. OIG+X believes that the main reasons are as follows:
 
a. Pork consumption has not been fully recovered, and consumption has been further suppressed after the increase in pork prices, restricting the rise in pig prices.
b. According to reports, the number of live pigs released by group pig farms increased significantly in Jul compared with Jun, and the number of pigs released in Aug was also at a high level.
c. The restocking of sows was coming to an end.
d. The secondary fattening pigs was released one after another.
e. The production capacity of live pigs continues to be in a state of excess.
 
The price of pigs did not rise in Aug, which was generally the result of oversupply. Most of the fat pigs currently being slaughtered were born in Jan and Feb this year. Although the survival rate of piglets in winter was low, the number of breeding sows was obvious at that time. It is higher than the normal number of sows, and the secondary fattening further increases the supply of pork in the market. In the absence of obvious favorable conditions on the consumer side, it is difficult for the price of pigs to rise.

-2. Can pig prices meet the rising tide in Sep?
Many pig farms are full of expectations for the price of pigs in Sept, because in Sept, the students start school and the consumption is good, and the turning point of pork consumption from decline to prosperity in previous years is basically in Sept.
 
However, the situation this year is different from previous years. First, there is a backlog of secondary fattening pigs in the market. These pigs basically started in Jun when the price of pigs just started to improve. According to the second fattening cycle, Sept will be the time when the second fattening pigs will be listed on the market. Second, in Mar and Apr of this year, the price of pigs fell to the bottom, and the terminal pork consumption demand was weak, and slaughtering companies had to divide the pork into storage. This part of the frozen meat will theoretically be sold in Sept and Oct. The above two points will significantly inhibit the rise of pig prices in Sept. There is indeed a market basis for the price of pigs to rise in Sept.
 
In general, it is expected that the price of pigs in Sept will show a state of first rising, then falling and then rising. The first rise is due to the start of school and the good consumption of the Mid-Autumn Festival, the latter fall is due to the concentrated listing of big fat, and then the rise is due to the Nov With the arrival of the National Day, slaughter companies stock up in advance.
 
-3. How much can the price of pigs rise by the end of the year?
Previously, some people predicted that the price of pigs may rise to 12.5-13 yuan in Dec. The live pigs released in Dec were born by sows in Jun. At the end of Jun, the number of fertile sows was 42.77 million, while at the end of Jan this year, the number of fertile sows was 42.9 million, and the number of sows dropped by 130,000. The number of pigs available for slaughter in Dec is lower than it is now.
 
In terms of consumer demand, it is now summer, pork consumption is not ideal, and there is no positive stimulus for consumption such as festivals. Dec is winter, and pork consumption itself is high. Coupled with the favorable stimulus of consumption during Christmas, New Year's Day, and other festivals, the pig price in Dec is bound to be higher than the current pig price.
 
At present, the national average price of live pigs is close to the level of 11 yuan. It is believed that under the combined influence of both supply and demand, the price of pigs will rise further in Dec, and the average price will reach more than 12.5 yuan by then.