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02

2022

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08

U.S. Beef Production Will Decline for at Least the Next Few Years

来源:

USMEF

Cattle and beef industry players are paying close attention to the US Department of Agriculture's semi-annual U.S. Cattle Inventory Report, released on July 29

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Cattle and beef industry players are paying close attention to the US Department of Agriculture's semi-annual U.S. Cattle Inventory Report, released on July 29, as an indicator of how quickly the U.S. cattle herd is shrinking. This data is in line with the industry's previous forecasts. The data showed that the herd of all cattle and calves on July 1 was down 2 percent from a year earlier to 98.8 million head, the lowest level since 2015. The total number of calving cows and heifers was down 2 percent from last year, slightly less than the previous forecast. In the July 1 data, the total number of beef cattle was 30.35 million, a decrease of 2.4% from the same period last year. This is the lowest beef cattle herd since 2015. A total of 4.15 million heifers were retained to replace heifers, a decrease of 3.5% compared to last year.

The 2022 full year calf production is forecast at 34.6 million head, down 1 percent from last year. USDA's semi-annual cattle inventory report data includes feeder cattle numbers for all feedlots, while monthly feedlot cattle reports only include feeder cattle above 1,000. On July 1, the total number of feeder cattle across all feedlots was 13.4 million, the same as last year but still higher. There is currently a lot of focus on the supply of cattle to enter the feedlot, including calves under 500 pounds, steers over 500 pounds, and heifers that are not replacement cows.

The July 1 data put the total supply of these cattle at 35.7 million head, down 2.7 percent from last year and the lowest level since 2015. In conclusion, the report shows an acceleration of destocking in 2022 as drought spreads and intensifies in cattle-grazing regions, especially in Texas and Oklahoma. The livecattle supply tightness, which has been delayed by the liquidation of breeding animals, will intensify in the months ahead and there is little doubt that U.S. beef production will decrease in the next few years.